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7 November 2024
20241106 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20241108

NOAA Number McIntosh Class C-class M-class X-class

13878
13879
13881
13883
13884
13886
13887
13888
13885

Dao/Dso
Hhx/Hhx
Dso/Dso
Ekc/Eki
Hsx/Hsx
Eki/Eki
Dsi/---
Bxo/---
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
32 36 35
12 6 20
21 30 30
92 93 90
3 5 10
75 81 70
... 58 55
... 6 5
... ... 5
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
5 7 10
3 8 5
1 7 10
55 82 75
0 3 1
23 42 35
... 12 15
... 1 1
... ... 1
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 0 1
0 1 1
0 1 1
6 20 30
0 0 1
3 7 10
... 0 1
... 0 1
... ... 1

Solar Monitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data. There are two main methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period*. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from the periods 1969-1976 & 1988-1996 (MCSTAT) and 1988-2008 (MCEVOL).

MCSTAT – Uses point-in-time McIntosh classifications to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL – Uses the evolution of McIntosh classifications over a 24-hr period to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)

Further Reading:
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87
Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951


Notes:

'...' = McIntosh class or evolution was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined.
* When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.


Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any queries regarding this research.



Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
13878 N16W66
(851",242")
β/βγ Dao/Dso 0150/0140 04/04 -
13879 N16W42
(624",223")
α/α Hhx/Hhx 0440/0440 01/01 -
13881 S09W53
(765",-188")
β/β Dso/Dso 0170/0180 07/09 -
13883 S06W05
(84",-162")
βγδ/βγδ Ekc/Eki 0360/0270 24/22 M1.4(11:53)
C4.7(10:46)
M2.7(07:46)
M1.6(07:36) / -
13884 S07E13
(-217",-177")
α/α Hsx/Hsx 0050/0060 01/01 -
13886 S08E25
(-406",-190")
βγ/βγ Eki/Eki 0320/0250 28/24 -
13887 N16W81
(919",257")
β/- Dsi/--- 0140/---- 08/-- -
13888 N04W63
(862",39")
β/- Bxo/--- 0020/---- 02/-- -
13877 S17W91
(925",-281")
/ / / / -
13880 S14W38
(580",-281")
/ / / / -
13885 S10W91
(952",-166")
/β /Cao /0030 /04 -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C7.5(02:03) C5.6(11:11) C4.7(18:18) C4.4(19:58) M2.5(01:15) M2.5(03:52) M1.3(07:20) M2.3(14:49) C5.6(22:20) M5.3(14:27) M1.2(17:10) M1.2(18:53) M1.3(20:35) M1.1(22:43) M1.1(23:10) M1.6(23:42)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 7-Nov-2024 00:30 UT . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 7-Nov-2024 20:30 UT .