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25 April 2002
20020424 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20020426

Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page lists the active regions present on the Sun today, together with their probability of producing C-, M-, or X-class events. Flare probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data combined over 1969-1976 and 1988-1996 (details of which can be found in Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41, along with full forecast verification testing). The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycles 21 and 22. For example, over both time periods there were 377 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 131 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~131/377 or ~0.347 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.347 ) ~ 0.29, or 29% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours.

See Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002),
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.

Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Occurrence of '...' indicates that McIntosh class was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined. Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
Number of Spots
09909 N07W78
αγ/αγ Hsx/Hsx 0050/0040 01/01 -
09910 S21W88
αγ/αγ Hsx/Hsx 0080/0080 02/01 -
09912 N09W66
βγ/βγ Dao/Dai 0230/0240 15/16 -
09913 S16W58
βγ/βγ Cso/Cso 0040/0030 13/06 -
09914 N04W10
βγ/βγ Dao/Dao 0230/0140 23/15 -
09915 N12W00
βγ/βγ Cao/Dao 0180/0180 11/13 -
09916 S18E18
βγ/βγ Eao/Dao 0100/0150 19/09 -
09919 N12E43
βγ/βγ Fao/Dso 0230/0160 06/02 -
09920 S23W29
βγ/βγ Cso/Cso 0020/0030 02/04 -
09922 N21E26
βγ/αγ Bxo/Axx 0010/0010 03/02 -
09923 S03W45
βγ/βγ Cro/Cro 0020/0020 08/08 -
09924 S17W21
βγ/βγ Dao/Dao 0060/0060 18/18 -
09925 S14W35
βγ/βγ Dso/Dso 0040/0040 05/05 -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: None

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 25-Apr-2002 00:30 . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 25-Apr-2002 23:30 .